November 11, 2020
Current Migration in Context with Value-Add Multifamily
The stream of stories about people leaving population hubs such as big cities in California have a point. . .but they fall short of a more complicated reality. The current pandemic has likely accelerated some migration patterns, but those trends have been visible for a while. Both the short-term effects and long-term consequences display a similar pattern: evolving urbanization, a steady growth of vibrant economies around college towns and tech hubs, drawing an influential consumer base seeking income-appropriate housing.
From our vantage point—the Offerd platform tracks over 90,000 off-market multifamily properties around the country—there’s clearly an ongoing transformation. The Offerd Projected Population Growth Interactive Map below, looking forward to 2020-2025, shows strong growth in the Pacific Northwest, Mountain states and the Sun Belt/Smile Belt. Overlain on top of the projected population growth are the total number of value add assets as measured by Offerd's value add algorithm.
On a related note, the Offerd Population Pressure Map below uncovers longer-term patterns in these same areas.
Meanwhile, there’s identifiable movement out of parts of the Bay Area, which has been magnified during the Covid-19 pandemic. This is significant because Northern California isn’t just another tech hub: It’s been the center of the digital universe for the past 30 years, and in that time accrued huge influence. However, that clout has come with a price—a very high price, specifically for every category of housing.
That’s one reason why this dynamic environment features very static elements. People who own homes don’t often want to sell, in part because of tax consequences. The market is ripe for more multifamily development, but. . .regulatory mandates are harsh enough to give developers pause.
Of course, despite the migration, this thriving region is not being abandoned—there are definitely areas in California and elsewhere with significant multifamily acquisition and development opportunities. Offerd identifies these assets with access to over 10,000 data points at the national, market, sub-market, and property-levels, which enables us to shape and execute targeted sourcing campaigns specific to your precise acquisition strategy.